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U.S. Gas Prices To Hit All-Time Record

Monday, March 7, 2022

Mosheh

Mar 7
4

Good morning,

As we look ahead to this week, the war in Ukraine is unfortunately only getting worse, with millions of civilians now trapped, living without power, water and gas, as well as new evidence the Russians are targeting them.

We'll break down the latest developments this morning, including the impact on oil and gas prices. The Headline: $4+ gas is here to stay. We will also look at the week ahead including inflation data and Apple's new product launch.

This week also marks two years since the week in March 2020 when the world shut down for COVID. We'll take a look at where things stand and what the future could look like.

And while we certainly don't want to make light of what's happening in the world right now, this tweet seems to capture the moment. ~@Mosheh

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  • Shelling Civilians: Ukrainians say they've had to pause (for a second time) the evacuation of 200,000 civilians from the port city of Mariupol because Russian forces were shelling residents, a direct violation of the agreed-upon humanitarian routes. People in that city have been without food, water and electricity for days. That comes as the Russians continue tighten their grip and attack major population centers.

    • The tragic scene photographed at the top of this newsletter played out in the town of Irpin, just north of Kyiv. Hundreds of Ukrainians huddled under a destroyed bridge as they attempted to evacuate and avoid Russian shelling. At least four Ukrainian civilians were killed, including three members of one family.

  • War crimes: Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the US has "seen very credible reports of deliberate attacks on civilians, which would constitute a war crime." Blinken told CNN that there have been credible reports "about the use of certain weapons." There were reports that Russia used cluster bombs in heavily populated areas and continues to hit nonmilitary targets. As of Sunday morning, the U.N. recorded 364 civilian deaths, including 25 children, and 707 wounded. Among the wounded were 36 children. The toll is likely higher.

  • The Hague: Russia didn't show up for today's hearing at the International Court of Justice, the UN's top court. Ukraine is urging the court to order Russia to halt its devastating invasion: "The consequences are unprovoked aggression, cities under siege, civilians under fire, humanitarian catastrophe and refugees fleeing for their lives.”

A decision on Ukraine's request is expected within days, but it's not enforceable. If the court orders an end to fighting and Russia doesn't abide by it, the matter is sent to the UN Security Council, where Russia holds a veto.

Latest as of Sunday morning via the Wall Street Journal

  • Latest From Moscow: Russian President Putin told the French president on the phone this weekend that he intends to achieve his goals including the full disarmament and neutrality of Ukraine either through war or negotiation. That is a non-starter for Ukraine given that, well, Russia just invaded their country.

    • Not "Irrational": The Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett flew to Moscow to meet with Putin this weekend to try to mediate an end to the conflict. A source close to the Israeli leader said he did not find Putin “conspiracy theorizing or irrational, nor is he suffering from rage attacks." Israel maintains good relations with both Ukraine and Russia and sees itself as a fair broker to mediate an end to the war.

    • For their part, the Ukrainians and Russians are set to sit down for their third round of talks on Monday. So far, the meetings have only achieved the agreement to allow humanitarian corridors to let civilians escape. The Russians have yet to allow them to be implemented.

    • UPDATE: On Monday morning Russia announced new "humanitarian corridors" to transport Ukrainians trapped under its bombardment - but only to Russia itself and its ally Belarus. Ukraine immediately denounced the move and called it an "immoral stunt." ~Reuters

  • Mr. Zelensky Goes to Washington (Over Zoom): Over the weekend, Zelensky held a Zoom call with over 300 American lawmakers, thanking them for the assistance so far but imploring them to do more. He asked for a ban of oil imports from Russia, a no-fly zone, and for direct aid, including planes, drones and anti-aircraft missiles. Given the adamant NO he keeps getting on a no-fly zone, he said at lest send him planes. The US is working on a three-way deal to send Ukraine some MiG fighter jets from Poland since the Ukraine Air Force is trained on the Soviet-era aircraft. In exchange, the US would send the Polish Air Force some US fighter jets. Look for more news on that front this week.

Tweet from the head of the UN refugee agency:

Flowers and Fatigues: Signs of hope are hard to find but this was one remarkable thing we saw this weekend: a battlefield wedding between two members of Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces. The couple have been together for 20 years but decided to tie the knot, given the circumstances.

Inflation: On Thursday the government will release inflation data, likely to show the price of goods and services continued to increase. Most economists initially thought inflation would be "transitory," but there's now concern that higher-than-normal inflation could last from a few years to a full decade.

  • Prior to the war in Ukraine, prices on everything from food to gas had already increased at the fastest rate in four decades. But now there's even more pressure on supply chains and the oil market.

  • New Gas Price Record: Over the weekend, the price of oil topped $130 a barrel, a 13-year high, on a possible ban of Russian oil from Western countries. The national average for the price of a gallon of gas has broken $4 a gallon, the highest in 10 years, and will likely break the all-time record of $4.11 (set in 2008) this week. Energy analysts project that $4+ gas is here to stay for most of 2022.

    • California has the most expensive gas in the country at $5.28 a gallon. The cheapest gas is in Missouri and Oklahoma at $3.60 a gallon.

    • Attention New Jersey Drivers: Between the prices and the difficulties finding staff, the 73-year ban on pumping your own gas may be finally coming to end. Oregon drivers, we are also looking at you.

  • Commodities: Wheat and corn prices are also way up. Ukraine is considered Europe's "breadbasket," accounting for 12% of the world's wheat exports and 16% of the world's corn exports. Even before the war, Kellogg and General Mills had raised prices on many of their products, and experts expect they'll likely raise prices again.

Jobs Numbers: A bit of good news on the jobs front. The February jobs report Friday showed employers added 678,000 new jobs for the month, well beyond expectations and a sign the economy is continuing to rebound from the pandemic. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, the lowest level in two years. And wage growth was flat.

  • One important exception: The unemployment rate for Black women rose to 6.1% from 5.8%. (The unemployment rate for Black men fell from 7.1% to 6.4%, but is still nearly double the overall population.) ~CNBC

Get your Instagram posts ready. International Women's Day is Tuesday. This year's theme is '#BreakTheBias'. It's a day to "celebrate women's achievements and increasing visibility, while calling out inequality." Some women across the world will also go on strike to mark the day.

  • The day was first celebrated in 1911 in Austria, Denmark, Germany and Switzerland.

Two years ago this week, the world stopped. On March 11, 2020 the World Health Organization first declared Coronavirus a pandemic. On March 13, the U.S. stock market suffered its biggest rout since the 1987 crash. President Trump declared COVID-19 a national emergency and issued the Europe travel ban that day as well.

  • Death toll: Two years later, we're now approaching an almost unimaginable 6 million Covid deaths worldwide, including nearly 1 million in the United States alone. California tops the list for the most deaths, followed by Texas, Florida and New York. On a per-capita basis, the hardest hit states have been Mississippi, Arizona, Alabama and New Jersey.

  • Cases & hospitalizations: There have been more than 79 million Covid cases in the US, according to the CDC Data Tracker. Hospitalizations have fallen more than two-thirds from their January peak, to about 45,000 from more than 150,000. The number of patients in intensive care units has also plummeted.

  • New normal: We have experienced more than a dozen variants, including the highly-transmissible Omicron variation. As the Omicron wave subsides in the US, many states and cities have rolled back mask mandates and vaccine passports, and shifted from a pandemic to an endemic strategy.

  • Vaccination rates: The pandemic is still highly politicized. In the US, only about 65% of the population is fully vaccinated, and of those, only 44% have received a booster shot. That's far below most countries in Europe, South America and Asia, plus Canada and Australia. Several major vaccine manufacturers are still working on one for children under age 5 -- look for more headlines on that this spring as it continues to face delays. Another big question is how often medical authorities will recommend regular doses or boosters. Initial speculation ranges from annual vaccines to a shot once every five years, according to recent comments by Anthony Fauci.

Source: U.S. News & World Report (Our World in Data)

  • What's next: "The short answer is: We don’t know yet..An optimistic scenario is for SARS-CoV-2 to settle into a less disruptive flulike pattern, producing wintertime outbreaks with hospitalization and mortality rates lower than we saw in 2020 and 2021. A more pessimistic scenario is for the virus to continue to generate variants that evade immunity and are capable of infecting large numbers of the population."

    • "While the virus is not driven toward becoming milder, other factors, like protection from prior infections, vaccinations, boosting and drugs, should help reduce disease severity, hospitalization rates, time spent in the hospital and the risk of death from Covid." -- Dr. Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease modeler, writes in a Guest Essay for the NY Times.

Apple will hold its spring media event on Tuesday, March 8 at 10am PT / 1pmET, dubbed Peek Performance. Once again, the event will be virtual. You can watch it on Apple's website.

First off, what we're NOT expecting: The iPhone 14 or the Apple Watch Series 8. Apple's expected to announce both of those products at its bigger fall event.

  • Now to what Apple IS expected to announce: Updated MacBooks and Mac Minis with more powerful in-house processors, plus a 5G version of its more-affordable iPhone SE and a new iPad Air.

  • Apple could also lower the price of its existing iPhone SE 2 to $199, according to Bloomberg.

  • Apple is also expected to roll out its upcoming iOS 15.4 software. It will likely include new Face ID unlock features to work with medical masks, anti-stalking alerts for its AirTag smart trackers, a non-binary voice for Siri and new emojis.

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Tornado outbreak kills at least seven in Iowa with severe damage near Des Moines

The outbreak delivered multiple intense tornadoes with long tracks across the Hawkeye State. (Washington Post)

‘Unimaginable’: Thousands displaced in record Australia floods

The one-in-1000-year floods impacting eastern Australia have displaces tens of thousand and made more than 2000 homes and businesses are unlivable. Officials warn that recovery will take years. (Sydney Morning Herald)

Trucker convoy laps Washington, DC, beltway to protest Covid-19 measures

A convoy of vehicles did a couple laps around the Washington, DC, beltway Sunday morning to demand an end to Covid-19 mandates and restrictions. They are not sure what their next steps are. (CNN)

Iran Nuclear Deal Threatened by Russian Demands Over Ukraine Sanctions

Western and Iranian officials have said they were very close to reaching a deal to restore the nuclear pact (WSJ)

How Moms-to-Be Get to Act More Like Dads

The liberation of being pregnant on Zoom and not in the office. (NY Times)

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[Top Photo Banner Credit: Photo by ARIS MESSINIS/AFP via Getty Images]

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4 Comments

  • Sadie Dominguez
    It is what it is . People are dying and millions are displaced from their lives families and homes. It is a small price to pay in comparison. If this is how we can do our part in this fight , it is very well worth it .
    • 10w
  • Brittany Million
    It's bullshit these gas prices
    • 10w
  • Robert Cullen
    Where the hell does it stop? The US has plenty of oil! Let’s start using it ourselves to take care of us! Let the other counti worry about it their own!
    • 10w
  • Joshua West
    Our inflation has nothing to do with Russia or Ukraine. Failed presidential policies, over regulation, and economic sabatoge by the current administration and Democrats is what has created these hardships. Media once again stepping in to manipulate peo…
    See more
    • 10w
    • Edited
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